全球油气资源量及预测研究综述

Overview and forecast of global oil and gas resources

本文综述性地介绍了全球油气资源的预测结果及相关问题。随着研究的深入,相关的认识与结论在不断地变化:二战前多认为全球常规石油最终可采储量(URR)为20 000亿~30 000亿bbl;在20世纪50年代,较高的估算值为29 320亿~33 720亿bbl;到20世纪80年代,使用计算机模拟新方法获得的预测值达48 380亿bbl;美国地质调查局2012年预测的全球(美国除外)石油和天然气的待发现资源量分别为5 650亿bbl和10 090亿boe,分别较2000年评估值减少了13%和增加了30%,储量增长量分别为6 650亿bbl和2 570亿boe,分别较2000年评估值增加了9%和减少了53%,为其对过去预测结果的修正,反映全球油气后备资源量的减少。全球油气资源在空间上分布极不均衡,主要集中在中东与北非、前苏联与北冰洋、撒哈拉以南非洲及南美和加勒比海地区。中国油气资源很有限,应节约并高效使用油气资源,加快能源结构调整和优化。

We conducted an overview of predictions and related issues for global oil and gas resources. The related understanding and conclusions of global oil and gas resources are constantly changing. Before World War II,most studies suggested that the global ultimate recoverable reserves(URR)of conventional oil ranged from 2000 billion bbl to 3 000 billion bbl;in the 1950 s,the higher estimates of conventional oil were from 2 932 billion bbl to 3 372 billion bbl;and in the1980 s,by using a new method of computer simulation the predicted values of conventional oil reached 4 838 billion bbl;the undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources estimated by the USGS(2012)are 565 billion bbl and 1 009 billion boe respectively,which have a 13% decrease and a 30% increase for each index compared with the results of USGS 2000 assessment,the reserve growth of oil and gas resources estimated by the USGS(2012)are 665 billion bbl and 257 billion boe respectively,which have a 9% increase and a 53% decrease for each index compared with the results of USGS 2000 assessment. These changes reflect the decrease in global back-up oil and gas resources and gradual revision of past evaluations of the USGS. The regional distribution of global oil and gas resources are strongly non-uniform,most of which are distributed in the Middle East and North Africa,former Soviet Union and Arctic Ocean,South America and the Caribbean,and sub-Saharan Africa. As oil and gas resources in China are limited,the country should save and make efficient use of oil and gas resources and speed up the realization of adjustment and optimization of our energy structure.