基于系统动力学的印度能源及煤炭需求情景预测

Scenario analysis and forecast of India's energy and coal demand based on system dynamics

随着印度能源和煤炭需求的增加,中印两国的能源竞争将日趋激烈,正确预测印度能源和煤炭需求增长趋势对于中国国际能源战略制定具有非常重要的意义。综合印度社会、经济、产业结构等因素对一次能源需求量的影响和经济、社会发展实际,构建了能源需求预测的7种情景,利用系统动力学模型预测了不同情境下的能源及煤炭需求量。根据印度经济、社会、能源、煤炭工业发展现状和趋势,考虑印度工业化需求、工业化基础、工业化的资源限制和市场限制,结合其他能源研究机构的预测结果,认为人口中增速、GDP中增速和当前产业结构模式的情景1与人口中增速、GDP中增速和弱工业化模式的情景4是较为可能的情景,根据这一判断,最终预测结果确定为:2035年能源需求量约(17~19)亿t油当量,煤炭需求量约(9~10)亿t油当量。至2035年的20多年里,印度可能成为全球能源消费增长最快和煤炭消费增长最快的地区。

India's economy has developed rapidly in recent years,and energy consumption has increased year by year. Coal is one of the most important energy sources in India and accounts for more than 50 percent of energy consumption. Here,we consider society,economic and industrial structure and the reality of social and economic development in India,and use system dynamics modeling to predict the demand for energy and coal under seven scenarios. Scenario 1(baseline scenario) represents a moderate growth speed of population,medium GDP growth and continuation of current industrial structure according to the development of India's current situation. Scenario 2 and scenario 3 are similar to the baseline scenario except that the GDP growth rate is 8% for Scenario 2 and 5% for scenario 3(6% for scenario 1). Compared with the baseline scenario,scenario 4 and scenario 5 consider that industrial structure is low industrialization for scenario 4 and service-led for scenario 5. Scenario 6 has the highest energy demand among the seven scenarios,and represents high population growth rate,high GDP growth rate and high industrialization. Scenario 7 is opposite to scenario 6 with a low population growth rate,low GDP growth rate and industrial structure of service-led mode. According to predictions,India's energy demand will continue to increase,and in 2035 the energy demand will amount to 1 700~1 900 Mtoe,coal demand is expected to reach 900~1 000 Mtoe. India may become the world's fastest growing consumer of energy and coal over the next 20 years.