基于ANP-SWOT模型的中国煤层气产业发展战略研究

Strategy of China's CBM industry based on ANP-SWOT model

开发利用煤层气可以有效减少煤矿瓦斯事故,改善大气环境,增加能源供给。针对中国煤层气产业发展影响因素的错综复杂现状,提出了ANP-SWOT综合分析模型。首先运用SWOT模型全面分析了中国煤层气产业发展的内外部影响因素;其次,设计能够准确反映影响因素间关系的ANP网络结构,以此度量具有关联性的影响因素权重,进而对煤层气战略备选方案作出选择。结果表明:煤层气开发风险大、地质条件复杂、资金投入不足是制约中国煤层气发展的关键因素;中国煤层气产业发展的最佳战略是WO战略组合。为此提出以下建议:1为增加国家能源供给,要坚定不移发展煤层气产业;2建立现有技术可开发煤层气的资源评价方法与标准体系;3从基础研究入手,深入分析煤层气形成单井产量的机理及影响因素和作用规律,并与现有技术优化集成,形成以大幅度提高单井产量为核心的适用于中国大多数煤层地质条件和储层条件的煤层气开发系列配套理论、技术体系。

Exploitation and utilization of CBM can effectively reduce coal mine gas accidents,improve the atmospheric environment and increase energy supply. Due to the complexity of factors which influence China's CBM industry,a comprehensive analysis model of ANP-SWOT is presented. First,we analyze China's CBM industry comprehensively using a SWOT model. A total of 12 factors affecting CBM industry,including great consumer demand,energy policy,local government support,mining rights,pricing mechanism,reserves,and environment protection. We formulate strategies of CBM development based on SWOT analysis matrix, including strengthening industry policy support,and improving infrastructure. Second,we design the ANP network structure reflecting relationships between factors to measure the weight of the interactive factors so we can choose the strategic program of CBM. Results show that key factors which restrict the development of CBM are risks of developing CBM,complicated geological conditions and a lack of capital investment. WO is the best strategy of combination. We should adhere to the developing CBM industry unswervingly,optimize top-level design,intensify policy support and arouse the enthusiasm of enterprise for technological innovation and investment. Resource evaluation methods and standards should be established so the CBM can be exploited well with existing technology. Research into mechanisms,influencing factors and functions of the formation of CBM based on basic research and combined with existing technology are suitable for the majority of our coal geological conditions and reservoir conditions.