中国三大经济圈碳生产率差异及影响因素

Difference in carbon productivity among China's three economic circles and influencing factors

本文解析了中国长三角、珠三角、京津冀三大经济圈1997-2012年的碳生产率,并将影响碳生产率的因素分解为能源效率、能源排放比率和产业结构三方面。结果表明,珠三角碳生产率水平最高,长三角次之,京津冀最低且远低于长三角和珠三角,2012年京津冀的碳生产率仅为长三角的42%、珠三角的34%。三地区碳生产率总体均呈上升趋势,能源效率提高是推动碳生产率增长的主要因素,但不同地区碳生产率的影响因素呈现出一定的特征差异。其中,长三角地区能源效率因素的作用偏小,这是长三角与珠三角地区碳生产率差距扩大的主要原因;珠三角能源排放比率因素对碳生产率提高的贡献较小,贡献率仅为3.96%;京津冀产业结构因素的影响不明显,贡献率为8.02%。从产业部门看,第二产业对碳生产率变动的影响最大,第一产业对碳生产率存在微弱的抑制作用,第三产业低碳效应显著。

This paper calculated carbon productivity of three economic circles during 1997 to 2012 and decomposed the absolute change in carbon productivity into three factors:energy efficiency,energy-to-emission ratio and industrial structure. By analyzing these data from three dimensions(time,influencing factor and industrial sector)the results revealed several important conclusions.First,among the three economic circles,the Pearl River Delta has the highest carbon productivity and the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is the lowest,which was only 42%of the Yangtze River Delta and 34% of the Pearl River Delta in 2012. Second,carbon productivity of these three economic circles shows an increasing trend. Various factors drive carbon productivity growth in different degrees,among which the energy efficiency effect is the biggest factor to increase carbon productivity. However,different regions have different characteristics. By comparison,the energy efficiency effect of the Yangtze River Delta is on the low side,this is the reason why the gap in carbon productivity between the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta is widening. The effect of energy-to-emission ratio in the Pearl River Delta remains low,the contribution rate of which is only 3.96%;the industrial structure effect of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is not obvious with a contribution rate of 8.02%,the lowest in three regions. Third,in terms of the industrial sector,the second industry plays a major role in the change in carbon productivity;the first industry has a faint negative effect on carbon productivity;the low carbon effect of the third industry is remarkable.