北方水稻低温冷害指标持续适用性检验与比较

Test and Comparison of Sustainable Suitability of Meteorological Indicators for Rice Cold Damages in the North of China

农业气象指标的可持续适用性检验与比较,对提升农业气象业务能力意义重大。应用北方地区代表县(市)1960-2010年逐日气温资料和历年水稻产量资料,计算冷害温度指标界定水稻冷害发生的正确率,对中国北方水稻延迟型冷害和障碍型冷害常用的指标进行应用效果检验,并比较适用性差异。结果表明,界定水稻延迟型冷害的5-9月气温指标稳定适用,正确率达到78%左右,可持续性好;积温差额指标也比较稳定,可以继续应用;但是积温距平指标判定冷害的正确率较低,多数地方不宜继续使用。界定水稻障碍型冷害的日平均气温、日最低气温及其持续时间指标比较稳定可靠,多数县(市)可以继续应用,但少数县市应暂停使用;日最低气温指标界定冷害的正确率略高于日平均气温指标。多年来,这些指标尽管要素和原理不变,但在适用性及可持续性方面存在一定的年代和区域差异,应选择使用并及时修订过时的指标,以适应气候变化和水稻栽培。

The test and comparison of sustainability and suitability of agricultural meteorological index is very meaningful for improving agricultural meteorological operations.This paper counts the accuracy of defining rice cold damage with meteorological indicators in different ages by using the daily air temperature data in 1960 — 2010 and rice yield data from representative stations in the north of China.The application effect of rice cold damage indicators for elayed growth-type and sterile-type is tested,and their differences are compared.The results show that the accuracy of May to September temperature indexes for defining the delay growth-type cold damage is around 78%,and the index is stable,showing good sustainability,and the accumulated temperature difference index is stable too,able to continue to apply.However,the accuracy of accumulated temperature anomaly index of elayed-type cold damage significantly is lower,not suitable to continue to use in most regions.For most of the representative counties,the indicators of daily average temperature,daily lowest temperature and its duration when defining the sterile-type cold damage are applicable at the present stage,but the accuracy is low in a few counties and they should susped using,but the accuracy of lowest temperature indicator is slightly higher than the daily average temperature indicator.The elements and mechanism of these indicators have not changed,but their stability and sustainability have differences in regions and ages,so the indicators should be used selectively and revised timely to adapt to climate change and rice cultivation.