上海市房地产限购限贷政策评估:基于断点回归设计的研究

The Impact of House Purchase Restriction: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

在宏观政策评价中,倍差法对控制组的严格要求往往无法得到满足,进而影响评估的有效性。文章利用断点回归的方法,在无对照组的情况下,对上海市2005年1月至2015年2月的房地产价格指数和地方财政收入月度数据进行实证研究,探求2011年上海市房地产限购限贷政策对其房价及地方财政收入的影响。实证结果表明从中长期角度看,这一措施对新建住宅价格和二手房销售价格具有统计上的显著负面作用,但经济意义上并不明显;另外,限购限贷政策并未对地方财政收入产生显著影响,这是上海市房地产市场刚性需求较大所造成的。同时,密度分布连续性和证伪检验的结果表明断点回归模型具有稳健性。而在学术意义上,论文在政策研究的方法设计方面推动了房地产政策评估的发展。

In the evaluation of macroeconomic policy,control groups are always unable to reach the strict requirements posed by difference-in-difference method,thus affecting the effectiveness of test. Hence,by employing the monthly data of real estate price indices and local fiscal revenue in Shanghai from January 2005 to February 2015,this paper tends to explore the effects of the2011 house purchase restriction policy on house prices through the design of regression discontinuity. Practically,the estimation result indicates that in the medium and long term,this restriction policy exerts statistically significant influence on house prices,but the effect is not very large. Regarding the local financial revenue,no evidence has been found to support the significant impact of the restriction on it partly due to the high rigid demand in Shanghai housing market. And the outcomes of density distribution and falsification tests suggest the robustness of our regression discontinuity design. Theoretically,this paper promotes the development of policy assessment in real estate market from the perspective of methodology design.