限购以及限贷政策的退出合理吗?——基于29个城市动态面板数据的实证分析

Is It Reasonable for the Termination of Restriction Policy of House Purchase? Empirical Analysis of 29 Cities' Dynamic Panel Data

自步入2014年以来,中国经济增速放缓,房价也开始环比下跌。而从今年6月份开始,一些城市纷纷退出限购政策,宣告施行了长达3年多的限购政策结束。论文选取全国29个城市自2008年10月至2014年6月的月度数据建立动态面板模型,用断点回归和偏差校正LSDVC法研究了限购、限贷政策的有效性以及区域异质性。研究结果表明,现阶段限购政策的退出是明智的。政府颁布的限购政策以及限制首付比率的限贷政策基本是无效的,房价主要受到需求和供给层面的因素影响,个人房贷利率和信贷规模在房价调控方面存在区域异质性。

The growth of economic in China slowed down and the house prices began to drop off since 2014. From the beginning of June in this year,some cities quitted 'House purchase quota policy'in succession,which declared the ending of the restrictions which implemented for more than 3 years. This article selected monthly data of 29 cities in China from October 2008 to June2014 to establish a dynamic panel model and used Regression Discontinuity and LSDVC method to analyze the validity of the'House purchase quota policy'and the'Limit credit policy'and regional heterogeneity. Research results showed that the 'House purchase quota policy 'and the limiting of down payment ratio was invalid. Prices were mainly affected by the supplying and demanding. Individual mortgage rates and the credit scale were regional heterogeneity in price control.