中国农村土地养老保障水平实证研究

Empirical research on the level of the rural land endowment security in China

构建一元、两序列、三账户、五支柱的农村养老保障体系中,土地养老发挥着重要的辅助作用,成为农民养老的最后一道防线。在人口流动加快和农村人口结构变化等背景下,土地价值逐步显现。为了有效地解决土地养老保障水平度量的问题,文章构建出养老保障水平数理模型,对现实土地养老保障水平进行实证分析。在对各参数变动预测的基础上,对未来40年农村土地养老保障水平进行预测,得出未来土地养老保障功能大幅度提高的结论,这为制定适合新农村建设的农村养老保障制度提供实证依据。

The rural land endowment security is an important part of the rural endowment security system, and is the important supplement for the rural social endowment. In the background of rural population mobility speeding up and the rural population structure changing,the land's value will gradually embodying. In order to effectively solve how to measure the level of rural land endowment security,this paper builds land endowment security level model. The levels of the land 's endowment security have been researched. On the base of the predicting the parameters of the land endowment security level model,the level of the land's endowment security have been measured over the next 40 years. That provided empirical evidence for establishing rural endowment security system.