四川省产业结构升级现状和金融支持研究

Sichuan's Situation in Industrial Structure Upgrading and Financial Support

本文分析了1978-2012年四川省产业结构升级的现状和问题以及与四川省金融发展之间的关系,结果发现:2002年以来四川省产业结构失衡的原因并非资源错配,或者说并不是第二产业本身出问题了,而是第三产业生产率自1990年以来提高太慢,以至于相对于总体生产率下降太快;四川省金融发展对产业结构升级提供了有力的支持,四川省贷款余额占GDP的比例每上升1%,将会使第二、三产业增加值之和占GDP的比例上升1.57%;四川省产业结构变化是金融发展的Granger原因;发展生产性服务业和调整金融结构有助于纠正四川省产业结构的失衡。

In 2013,the GDP of Sichuan province was 262 million yuan.Calculated at comparable prices,it increased 10.0%over the previous year.The contribution rate of the three industrial sectors on economic growth is 4.4%,62.3%and33.3%respectively.Seen from both the added value and growth rate,the secondary industry's contribution to the economy of Sichuan province is the biggest.This is also reflected in terms of the industrial sectors.The three industrial sectors in Sichuan province in 2013 was 13.0:51.7:35.3.Thus,the proportion of the secondary industry in GDP was greater than the sum of the primary and tertiary industries.In 1978,the ratio was 44.5:35.5:20.0.In the past 35 years,the proportion of the primary sector industries of Sichuan province declined sharply while the secondary and teriary industries rose greatly.Is the adjustment of the structure of Sichuan province's industrial sectors reasonable? A reasonable industrial structure is the important foundation for stable economic growth,and because of this,Kuznets(1973) listed it as one of the six major characteristics of modern economic growth.This article gives a detailed analysis on the situation and problems of upgrading the industrial structure in Sichuan province from 1978 to 2012,and tests its relationship with the financial development of Sichuan province.The following conclusions are made from this study:Firstly,with regard to the industrial structure of Sichuan province,2002 was a turning point.After that,the share of the added value of the secondary industry in GDP accelerated rapidly.However,the share of the teriary industry reversed,and has continued to decline.Secondly,the imbalance of the industrial structure in Sichuan province since 2002 is not caused by mismatching resources,nor is it because something is wrong with the secondary industry itself.It is due to the fact that,since 1990,the productivity of the teriary industry increased too slowly,and,as a result,the teriary industry declined too rapidly compared with overall labor productivity.Thirdly,although this form of structural imbalances exists,laborers in the primary sector of industy of Sichuan province have been shifting to the secondary and teriary sectors.Therefore,the industrial structure is still continuously upgrading.Fourthly,financial development provides strong support to upgrading the industrial structure of Sichuan province.From 1978 to 2012,whenever the loan balance as a proportion of GDP rose 1%,it led to the rise of the proportion of the sum of the added value of the secondary and teriary industry in GDP by 1.57%.Fifthly,upgrading the industrial structure in Sichuan province is due to Granger causality effect of financial development in Sichuan province.Otherwise it will not happen.Based on the above conclusions,the effective method to correct the imbalance of the industrial structure in Sichuan province is to improve the labor productivity of the teriary industries.This can not only improve the GDP,but can also reduce the proportion of the secondary industries in the GDP.The department with the highest productivity in the teriary industry is production services.Since 1978,the production services of Sichuan province have undergone rapid development.In2012,the total employment of persons working in production services,including wholesale- retail,transportation storage,commercial leases,professional services,information- communication,and financial insurance,reached 4.54%,4.54%,1.12%,0.85%,0.84%and 0.52%,and the total proportion was 10.69%.However,compared with the developed economies,there is still a big gap,especially in the professional services.Concerning policy,we should open up further,improve the fiscal and taxation policies as well as land and price policies,strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights and construct talented teams,and furthermore,build an institutional environment with a low transaction cost,and promote a harmonious development of production services and manufacturing.In addition to the government's guidance policy and market adjustment mechanisms,a reasonable financial structure is very important.The financial structure includes two aspects:the proportion of financial intermediaries and financial markets.Financial intermediaries are is the banking system.Carlin and Mayer's research(1998) found that financial markets run well in developed economies,and banking systems are more efficient in developing economies.Lin(2003:200) emphasized the importance of the scale of the banking structure.He thinks that companies in different industries are significantly different in size and risk,and need to be matched with different sizes of bank structure.Generally speaking,the scale of the enterprises in labor-intensive industries is relatively small,while the scale of enterprises that are capital and technology intensive is relatively big.Therefore,current financial development in Sichuan province should give priority to the banking system.This means not only needing big banks to provide financial services for capital and technology intensive industries,but also needing small banks to meet the financial demand of the small labor- intensive enterprises.In addition,we need to innovate financial services,establish and improve the corresponding financing support systems and products according to characteristic phasesand requirements of research,design,and application,construct a convenient financing platform,and support those eligible production services enterprises to seek financing from stock market and bond issuing.