农村劳动年龄人口乡城迁移意愿和城镇化路径研究——基于CGSS 2010年数据的Logistic回归模型分析

Research on the Rural- urban Migration Willingness of Rural Working- age Population and Urbanization Path: Logistic Regression Analysis Based on CGSS 2010

基于全国大范围的微观调查数据,研究对象聚焦为在农村的剩余劳动力,采用Logistic回归模型,从个体特征、家庭特征、社会心理特征三个维度对农村劳动年龄人口的乡城迁移意愿进行了研究。从目的地来看,超过半数的研究对象希望迁移到县城/县级市或小城镇居住,而不是北京、上海等特大城市。从迁移意愿看,当前的乡城迁移意愿较低,经济条件仍然是制约迁移的主导性因素。从影响因素看,教育程度、个人年收入、家庭年收入、有外出务工劳动力、非农工作经历、10年后所处阶层预期等因素对乡城迁移意愿有正向作用,年龄、当前所处阶层的自我评价等因素对迁移意愿有负向作用。结合研究结论和当前小城镇的发展现状,笔者认为在控制特大城市人口规模的形势下,应大力发展中等城市,走一条中国特色的城市化道路。

Based on the nationwide micro-survey data,this paper studies the rural-urban migration willingness of the rural surplus labor with Logistic regression model in three dimensions of the individual characteristics,family characteristics,social and psychological characteristics. Majority of migration has a clear destination,more than half want to migrate to the county / county-level city or small town,rather than Beijing,Shanghai or other metropolis. The migration willingness is relatively low in current and the dominant factor is still the economic reason. Education,annual family and household income,migrant labors availability,non-farm work experience,the class expectation in10 years and other factors have positive effect on rural- urban migration intention while age,the current class self-evaluation have negative effect on rural- urban migration intention. According to research findings and current development status of small towns,the author believes,under the situation of control the population size of mega-cities, we should promote the development of medium- sized cities and create a path of urbanization with Chinese characteristics.