城乡居民基本养老保险保障水平评估与反思——基于养老金替代率视角

Review and Evaluation on Rural-urban Residents Social Pension Insurance:Based on Replacement Rate of Basic Pension Insurance

养老金替代率是测度养老保险保障水平的常用指标。通过对居民基本生活需求的界定,本文提出将养老金目标替代率设定为农村居民人均纯收入的50%,城乡居保能够实现"保基本"的目标。精算评估结果表明,现行制度框架下城乡居保替代率远低于目标水平。改革情境模拟显示,提高城乡居保养老金替代率的关键是坚持强制性原则,并确保政府对基础养老金补贴和个人缴费的增长率均不低于农村居民人均纯收入增长率。增加个人账户基金投资收益率、延长最低缴费年限和提高养老金领取年龄也是提高城乡居保替代率的可行措施。

Based on discussing the reasonable target replacement ratio of the basic pension insurance,this paper evaluates the security level of Rural-urban Residents Social Pension Insurance by constructing actuarial model. The results show that the replacement rate is too small to meet the needs of basic pension insurance for rural and urban residents. In simulation analysis,the key point of improving the replacement rate of basic pension insurance is to ensure the growth rate of government subsidies on basic pension and the personal contribution ratio is not less than the growth rate of income of urban and rural residents. Increasing the investment return rate of the fund of individual account,extending the minimum payment years and raising pensioners’ age are feasible measures to improve the replacement rate of basic pension insurance.