输入性因素主导我国物价变动

The Dominant Effect of Imported Factor on China's Price Changing

本文利用我国8部门进口非竞争型投入产出表和国民经济各部门进口产品价格变动率计算得出了最终消费品和中间投入品输入性通货膨胀率的度量指标序列,并结合国内货币供给因素和真实需求因素对我国2005年1月至2014年11月物价水平变动的成因进行了计量经济分析。结果表明:在扣除了翘尾因素后,输入性因素是我国物价水平变动的最重要原因,真实需求因素的作用相对较小;货币供给因素没有系统解释力。

In the paper we established an indicator to measure imported inflation of final goods and intermediate goods using imported production prices of various industries and the import non-competition input-output table of 8 sectors in China. Combining it with indicators of monetary supplying factors and real demand factors,we analyzed the causes of price change from 2005 to 2014 empirically. We found that the impact of imported factors on the domestic price system was the most important cause of price changing in China after deducting tail-raising factor; however,real demand factor had a comparatively weak influence upon the price changing,and the money supplying factor had no explanatory power systematically.