摘要
中国作为石油消费大国,国际石油价格的变动会对中国进出口贸易产生一定程度的影响。笔者分析了国际油价变动影响中国贸易结构的传导路径,并利用面板数据模型,研究了国际石油价格变化对SITC二位数分类水平下中国63类进出口产品的影响。实证结果表明,国际石油价格上涨能够增加非能源密集型产品的出口比重,有利于中国出口贸易结构的优化。同时,油价上涨对石油及其相关产品进口具有显著的正向影响,且回归系数较大,不利于进口贸易结构的改善。
The international oil price is a main factor of China's trade,because of China's huge oil consumption. This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of international oil price on China's trade. Based on the panel data model,we also analyze the impacts of international oil price on China's trade structure with the SITC classification. The results show that rising oil price can increase export proportion of non-energy intensive products and optimize the structure of exports. In addition to that,rising oil price has a positive impact on the import of oil-related products,which has an adverse effect on the structure of China's import.
出处
《经济经纬》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第5期73-78,共6页
Economic Survey
