经济增长、城市化与技术进步对能源消费的非线性影响效应研究

Nonlinear Influential Effects of Economic Growth,Urbanization and Technical Progress on Energy Consumption

笔者采用1953年~2012年的经济数据,基于STR模型考察了人均GDP增长率、城市化率、技术进步率对能源消费强度的非线性影响效应。检验结果表明,分别以滞后一阶的人均GDP增长率和滞后一阶的城市化率作为平滑转换变量建立ESTR模型,以技术进步率作为平滑转换变量建立LSTR模型,是最恰当的计量建模方法。实证研究发现:我国经济的平稳较快增长可以持续地降低能源消费强度,温和稳定地推进城市化进程对降低能源消费强度有一定促进作用,而技术进步对能源消费则有显著的正向拉升作用。

Based on economic data and STR model,the paper studies the nonlinear influential effects of GDP per capital growth rate,urbanization rate and technical progress rate on energy consumption intensity. The inspection result shows that,when using the timedelay GDP per capital growth rate and urbanization rate as smooth transition variable to build ESTR model,and technical progress rate to build LSTR model,the modeling would be the most appropriate. The research finds that steady and relatively fast growth of China's economy can reduce the energy consumption intensity continuously,and the steady progress of urbanization can facilitate the reduce of energy consumption intensity,while technical progress can pull up energy consumption prominently.