摘要
概率论和数理统计在油气资源评价中应用可概括为油气藏/田规模概率分布规律研究、油气藏/田总体的预测、油气资源的回归分析预测和油气资源的蒙特卡罗模拟预测4个方面。文中讨论了对数正态分布和帕莱托分布两种主要的油气藏/田规模概率分布模型的特点、应用历史、理论基础以及对评价结果的影响;概述了最大似然理论、贝叶斯理论和不等概率抽样理论在油气藏/田总体预测中的应用;讨论了回归分析在油气的发现和生产的生命旋回模型和负指数变化模型中的应用;描述了资源评价的面积产率和体积产率法中蒙特卡罗模拟的应用。
Probability theory and mathematical statistics can be applied to oil and gas resource assessment in four aspects as research on oil and gas pool/field size distribution rule,oil and gas pool/field population prediction,oil and gas resource prediction by regression analysis and oil and gas resource prediction by Monte Carlo simulation.The characteristics,application histories,theory foundations and influences to assessment results of two main oil and gas pool/filed size probability distribution models—lognormal distribution and Pareto distribution are discussed.Applications of maximum likelihood theory,Bayes theory and varying probabilistic sampling theory to the prediction of oil and gas pool/field population are summarized.Applications of regression analysis to logistic model and exponential decline model characterizing discovery and production rates are discussed.Applications of Monte Carlo simulation in two resource assessment methods-areal yield and volumetric yield are described.
出处
《内蒙古石油化工》
CAS
2016年第4期121-124,共4页
Inner Mongolia Petrochemical Industry
基金
国家自然科学基金自助项目(11071257)
关键词
资源评价
概率分布
最大似然
不等概率抽样
蒙特卡罗
Resource assessment
Probability distribution
Maximum likelihood
Varying probabilistic sampling
Monte Carlo
