汇率波动与国际贸易收支动态关系探析

Research on the dynamic relationship between fluctuations of exchange rate and the balance of international trades

本文运用协整理论探讨汇率波动与国际贸易收支之间动态关系 ,通过实证分析来揭示偏离长期均衡的短期波动纠正机制。协整检验揭示国际收支与实际汇率之间存在协整关系 ,误差修正模型揭示对出口额的波动具有一定的反向调节作用 ,而对进口额的反向调节作用则很微弱。实证分析表明国际收支与实际汇率存在某些长期关系 ,虽然长期关系在短期内会被破坏 。

This dissertation discusses the dynamic equilibrium between fluctuations of the exchange rate and the balance of international trades. Through experiential analysis we disclose correction mechanism exists when short-term vibration deviates far from the long-term equilibrium. As co-integration test reflects regulation between international trades and real exchange rate, correction mechanism suggests certain counter-regulation effect on export and weak effect on import. Experiential analysis also indicates a long-term relationship exists between international trades and real exchange rate, whose deviated windage is stable though the long-term relationship may be destroyed within a short term.