摘要
对于工序时间具有随机性的复杂工程项目,在Excel中运用蒙特卡洛仿真获得项目的完成时间分布并找出关键工序。在一新产品研制项目的仿真模型中,运用Excel中的"公式"表示项目完成时间的算法,用蒙特卡洛法处理工序时间的不确定性。仿真运行后,获得了项目完成时间的频数图和相关统计量,通过灵敏度分析确定各工序对项目完成时间变动的影响程度。
The paper discusses the way to apply Monte Carlo simulation to PERT when the time of activity is stochastic. In the simulation of a project to develop new products,formulas in Excel are employed to express the arithmetic of time needed to accomplish the project,and Monte Carlo method is used to deal with the uncertainty of time of activity. A frequency chart and relative statistics of time needed are gained.And the influence of each activity on the time needed is determined through sensitivity analysis.
出处
《工业工程》
2004年第3期51-55,共5页
Industrial Engineering Journal
