山东历史时期冷暖旱涝状况分析

AN ANALYSIS ON COLD/WARM AND DRY/WET IN SHANDONG PROVINCE DURING HISTORICAL TIMES

本文利用山东历史时期冬温指数、水旱指数序列,分析了近500多年来山东冷暖旱涝状况。主要结论是:山东气候存在着明显的冷暖干湿变化,冷暖变化为四暖三冷,干湿变化为四湿四干。旱涝灾害频繁,旱涝发生频率为44%,且在区域和季节上表现出不均匀性。全省范围的大旱大涝随时间有增加趋势。冷暖波动与旱涝变化关系密切,冷的时期涝灾较多,且存在地区和季节差异。

In this paper.the series of winter temperature index for each decade and seasonal dry wet in-dex arc reconstructed , the characteristics of cold/warm and dryness/ wetness variation in Shan-dong Province during historical times are analysed. The conclusions are as follows; ( 1 )The fluctuation of cold/warm and dry/wet is very obvious in Shandong Province during historical times. There are four warm periods (1470——1549, 1580——1619,1680——1809,1920——1989) and three clod periods (1550——1579 , 1620——1679, 1810——1919 ) from 1470 to 1989. There are four wet periods( 1 470——1497 ,1529——1604 , 1684——1766 ,1816——1892)and four dry periods ( 1498——1528 , 1 605——1683 , 1767——1815. 1893——1990)from 1470 to 1990. The cycle periods of dry/wet are drew out .they are : 5 1. 2yr, 28. 4yr, 1 6. Oyr , 1 0. 2yr, 4. 9yr, 3. 9yr. (2) The drought and flood are frequent in Shandong Province during historical times. But there are differences in four seasons and in five regions . The seasonal and disastrous drought flood frequency for five regions are calculated.it shows: there are more drought and flood in the northwest than in any other regions in Shandong Province,and the disasterous drought and flood increase obviously as time goes on . (3)The relation between cold/warm and drought/flood are rather strained. The correlative coefficients between the winter temperature index and drought/flood years for five regions in each decade are calculated.it shows: the relationship between the winter temperature index and drought/flood years in summer and autumn is more obvious than in winter and spring.there are more flood years in the cold periods than in warm periods. (1)The seven phases of cold warm and drought/flood are divided.and the characteristic of them is discussed. They are : 1470——1549,warm and normal; 1550——1579.cold and wet; 1580——1619,warm and dry; 1620——1679.cold and dry; 1680——1809.warm and wet; 1810——1919,cold and wet; 1920——1989.warm and dry.