基本养老保险基金缺口实证研究——以兰州市为例

A Case Study on Shortage of Pension Funds ——take the case of Lanzhou

针对我国养老保险基金出现的收不抵支等现实问题,本文在构建精算模型时引入了收缴率和工资比率等现实因素,结合兰州市的抽样数据对国家、企业、个人各自的负担比例进行了精算分析。对现行制度孕育着的未来"基金缺口"进行了测算,并对因素变量进行了敏感性分析。找出了影响统筹账户基金缺口的因素,并提出了相应的对策建议。

Based on the sample data in Lanzhou, applying actuary model and comparative static method, the shortage of pension funds in the existing system is calculated and a sensitive analysis is given quantificationally and wholly. In this way, factors that affect shortage of pension insurance funds are found and analyzed, and some advices are given on social insurance reform.