摘要
本文提出了利用地震平均重现周期判别地震丛集和确定地震丛集等级的方法。进而研究了中国M_s≥7.0地震的丛集事件分布特征,得到丛集事件等级一频次分布式和时间分布式。在此基础上,本文对中国大陆强震丛集事件作了背景预测。结果认为:中国大陆自1988年11月起,在未来15年内,发生强震丛集事件的概率为83.3％,其最大可能的等级为D_T=Ⅲ级。
This paper proposed a method for distinguishing the earthquake clustering and determining the degree of the earthquake clustering by using the average reccurrence period of earthquakes. Also, the paper studied the distribution characteristics of clusteringevents of earthquakes M>7.0 in China,, and obtained the degree-frequency distribution equation and time distribution equation of clustering events. On the basis of this, the paper carried out the background prediction on clustering events of strong earthquakes in China's continent. The results show that in the coming 15 years since November, 1988, the probability for clustering events of strong earthquakes in China's continent is 83%, the most possible degree is Dr. = 111.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1993年第2期1-9,共9页
Earthquake
关键词
地震
强震
丛集性
地震期
time of earthquake occurrence
clustering
