摘要
在工程地震工作中需要知道某地震带或某地区未来100年内的地震活动水平,以便适当选择历史地震的统计时段,从而得到和地震活动水平相适应的不同潜在震源区的各级地震的年平均发生率。 本文利用极值理论、最大熵原理、马尔可夫模型的方法、莫尔纳方法和伯努里模型方法计算了山西地震带未来100年内中强震的年平均发生率、平均重现期大于等于某级地震的个数和发震概率,计算结果表明,山西地震带未来百年内将发生≥6.0级地震3次,发震概率为0.94左右;将发生≥6.5级地震1—2次,发震概率为0.84左右;有可能发生≥7.0级地震,发震概率为0.53左右;发生≥7.5级地震的可能性不大,发震概率为0.32左右;发生≥8.0级地震的可能性很小,发震概率为0.15左右。
The knowledge about the level of seismic activity in the coming 100 years in some seismic zones or regions is neccessary for the engineering earthquake work, so as to choose the statistic time-interval of historic earthquakes suitably, thus obtain the yearly average occurrence rate of earthquakes with various magnitudes in different potential focal regions suitable to the seismic activity level.This paper computed the yearly average occurrence rate of moderately strong earthquakes, average recurrence interval, number of earthquakes ≥ a given magnitude and causative probability in Shanxi seismic zone in the coming 100 years by using the extreme value theory, maximum entropy principle, method of Malkov model. Molnar method and method of Bernouly model. The computed results show that there will occur 3 earthquakes M ≥ 6.0 and the causative probability is about 0.94; 1-2 earthquakes with M≥ 6.5 and the causative probablity is about 0.84; the earthquake with M ≥7.0 and the causative probablity is about 0.53; less possibility tor the earthquake with M ≥ 7.5 and the causative probablity is about 0.32; least possibility for the earthquake with M ≥ 8.0, the causative probability is about 0.15 in Shangxi seismic zone in 100 years.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1993年第5期40-46,共7页
Earthquake
关键词
最大熵
地震带
地震序列
历史地震
maximum entropy principle
extreme value theory
Molnar method
Markov model
Bernouly model