近期华北地震大形势的统计分析

Statistical analysis on seismic tendency of recent future in North China

文章在3—5年较长时间尺度概率估计的前提下,力争对未来较短时期(1—2年)各区、带地震活动趋势进行定量分析,特别着重于地震总体活动水平的比较及年最大震级的预测.

In this paper the seismic tendency of recent future in North China has been studied by a lot of statistical prediction methods, particularly for some seismic belts. The main thought of this paper is: on the base of probability estimate for a long time (about 3 -5 years ), the seismic tendency in North China and some seismic beltsfor a short time (about 1 -2 years ) will be studied quantitatively, especially comparing of the total level of seismic activity and predicting of the maximum magnitude yearly.