中国城镇劳动参与率的变化及其政策含义

Changing Labour Force Participation in Urban China and Its Implications

同失业率一样 ,劳动参与率也是反映就业状况的一个重要指标。在失业严重的情况下 ,那些年龄偏大、教育水平偏低的劳动者 ,因长期找不到工作而丧失信心 ,退出劳动力市场 ;同时 ,本拟进入劳动力市场的新生劳动力可能推迟或放弃寻找工作。这种劳动参与率的降低造成一种隐蔽性失业现象。本文利用第五次人口普查和五个城市的调查数据 ,展示了近年来 ,在下岗和失业现象日益严峻化的同时 ,劳动参与率的下降趋势 ,并揭示了城镇失业率与劳动参与率之间的关系 ,表明劳动参与率的下降是失业的结果。通过建立两个计量经济学模型 ,对影响劳动者处于就业、失业或退出劳动力市场等三种状态的因素进行了分析 ,并在此基础上阐述了相关结论的政策含义。

Falling rates of labour force participation reflect the state of the labour market in urban China today. Given depressed demand for labour in the overall market, the unemployed who are older in years and disadvantaged in educational attainments, and who have been out of work for a long time, are discouraged. They tend to withdraw from the labour force, while the younger generation who would ordinarily enter it postpone doing so or even give up. Hence hidden unemployment. Using data from the 2000 census and from a China Urban Labour Survey conducted in five Chinese cities, we account for changes in labour force participation over the course of intense restructuring of state-owned enterprises in China, statistically analyse characteristics of labour supply in the transition, and draw out some overall policy implications.