虚拟经济与实体经济之间关联性的计量检验

An Econometric Analysis of Linkages and Influences between Real and Nominal Economy

本文通过定量分析虚拟经济与实体经济在规模和活性上的相互作用和相互影响 ,发现虚拟经济对实体经济具有显著的“溢出效应” ,无论是货币供给规模还是价格水平的波动 ,都存在着对实体经济规模和增长的正向作用和影响 ;同时 ,实体经济对虚拟经济也具有显著的反馈影响 ,并且反馈过程具有一定的规则性和灵敏性。这说明扩张货币需求总量和增强价格调整灵活性等名义需求管理政策仍然具有重要的实际作用 ,虚拟经济与实体经济的协调发展不仅是经济政策有效性的基础 ,而且也是保持经济长期快速稳定增长的必要条件。

Econometrically analysing the interaction of the nominal and real economy, we find a significant spillover of the nominal economy's scale and volatility into the real one. Feedback is in fact transmitted back from the real to the nominal economy, the process of which is regular and sensitive to external shocks. This all goes to show the importance of expanding the money supply and augmenting price adjustment in demand management policies. Developing both nominal and real economies in a balanced way is key not only to policy effectiveness, but also to rapid and stable long run growth.