关于我国M_2与GDP的比例的研究

Research about the ratio of M_2/GDP in China

在改革开放以来的二十多年中 ,除了 1985、1988、1994这 3年以外 ,我国的广义货币量 (M2 )与国内生产总值 (GDP)的比例一直在稳步上升 ,从 1978年的 30 %上升到 2 0 0 0年的 15 2 % ,其水平已位居世界前列。2 0 0 0年我国的这一比例 ,既高于美国 (5 0 % )、日本 (12 6 % )、英国 (10 5 % )等发达国家 ,也高于许多新兴工业化国家 ,比如韩国 (6 8% )、巴西 (39% )和新加坡 (12 1% )。这一现象引起了国内学术界的关注。我国M2 与GDP的比例相对较高的原因是什么 ?M2 与GDP的比例相对较高是否意味着货币供应过多和金融风险的增大 ?对此应实行什么样的货币政策 ?本文主要对这些问题的研究情况进行了归纳与总结。

In the more than 20-years'open-door reform, the ratio of M_2/GDP in our country was steping up steadily except for the year of 1985, 1988 and 1994, which has raised to 152% in the year of 2000 from the 30% in the year of 1987 and has raised to the top level in the whole world. The high ratio of M_2/GDP of China in 2000 is not only higher than the developed countries such as the United States(50%), Japan(126%), UK(105%) and so on, but also higher than the rising industrialized countries such as Korea(68%), Brazil(39%) and Singapore(121%). This phenomenon has attracted the attention of domestic academe. What is the reason for the relatively higher ratio between M_2 and GDP in China? And whether or not the higher ratio means the excess monetary supply and the higher financial risk? What monetary policy should be conduct accordingly? This paper concludes the research outcomes focused on these problems.