关于地震预报战略思想的几点思考

SOME THINKING ON STRATEGY OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

在国内外地震学界,围绕要不要公开进行地震预报,能不能承担社会性地震预报的重任,长期争论不休。其内在的原因是地震灾害的影响,地震科研的特点,特别是现阶段地震预报水平过低。在地震预报难度甚大,而实际工作中又不能放弃的形势下,应采取适当的地震预报战略。正确评价、正面宣传地震预报水平,以综合减灾措施支持地震预报,严格把好社会性短临预报关口,掌握好内部预测意见向社会发布的过渡是十分重要的。

Whether earthquake prediction is issued to public, and whether seismological departments can bear large responsibility for society, are a matter in an endless dispute in the sphere of international and domestic seismology a long time. This is because of earthquake disaster, and the characteristics of seismological research, specially because earthquake prediction level is still very low recently. Although earthquake prediction is difficult, in fact, it is necessary that earthquake prediction is issued to public. In this condition, strategy of proper earthquake prediction should be executed. It is important to correctly evaluate and propagate present level of earthquake prediction, and to support earthquake prediction using the complex countermeasure of reduction disaster, strictly to controll the short-imminent predicion, to hold the transition from internal prediction to public prediction.