利用修改的震级—频度关系研究扬—铜地震带的未来地震

STUDY OF EARTHQUAKE TENDENCY IN YANG—DONG SEISMIC ZONE USING MODIFIED MAGNITUDE-FREQUENCY RELATION

本文对修改的震级-频度关系进行了全面的统计检验。结果表明,修改的震级-频度关系从整体上讲拟合精度是令人满意的,可用于预测。本文根据扬—铜带修改的震级-频度关系,以及极值方法的结果,预测扬—铜带未来可能发生一次6.5—6.8级地震。

In this paper,a result of overall statistical test on modified magnitude—frequency relation is proposed.The result shows that the relation is generally satisfactory in fitting accuraty.It may be used to predict earthquake.Based on the proposed relation and the result of extremal method,a earthquake of 6.5—6.8 which will occur probably in the Yang—Dong seismic zone in the future is predicted.