实际经济周期理论:回顾与展望

Real Business Cycle Theory: Retrospect and Prospect

实际经济周期(RBC)理论是在20世纪70、80年代形成并发展起来的经济周期理论,其认为经济周期是由实际冲击造成的,经济波动是理性个体对实际冲击最优选择的结果。实际经济周期理论被称为“对宏观经济学的有利的技术冲击”,目前,其倡导的动态随机一般均衡模型已经成为现代宏观经济学分析的基本工具。本文将对实际经济周期理论进行综述和评析,介绍标准RBC模型的理论框架、实证检验、特点以及RBC研究的深化和发展。

The Real Business Cycle (RBC) theory emerged and grew in 70s and 80s of the last century. RBC theory holds that the business cycle is formed by real shocks, and that the business fluctuation is the result of rational individuals' best response to the real shocks. This theory is called 'a technological shock favourable to macro-economics'. At present, a dynamic and stochastic model of equilibrium has become a basic tool for modern macro-economic analysis. This article is a review of RBC theory, which covers the theoretical framework, positive tests, characteristics and extensions of the basic RBC model.