台湾强震(M_s≥7)的灰色灾变预测

GREY HAZARD PREDICTION OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE (Ms≥7) IN TAIWAN REGION

台湾地震东带是我国地震活动性最高的地区。本文根据灰色系统理论,利用台湾地震东带1947—1990年间的年最大地震构成的时间序列,建立了台湾强震(M_s≥7)的灰色灾变预测模型。其地震发生时间的预测模型为:(?)^(1)(t+1)=(47.74+790.30)e^(0.060786t)-790.30外推结果,本带下一次Ms≥7的地震事件将发生在1996年前后。经检验,本模型的拟合精度属第一级“好”。

The earthquake activity in East Taiwan seismic zone is the most intensive in China. In this paper, according to the grey system theory, the hazard prediction model of strong earthquake (M≥7) in Taiwan has been established by using the time series of the annual maximum-magnitude earthquakes occurred in the zone from 1947 to 1990. The prediction model of earthquake-occurrence time is expressed as follows.x(1)(t +1) = (47.740+ 790.30)e03060786t-790.30Based on the model, the extrapolated conclusion is that the next great carth-quake (M≥7.0) will occur in the zone in 1996 or so. Having been checked, the fitting accuracy of the model reaches the first class 'good'.