对龙羊峡水库发生诱发地震可能性的探讨

THE POSSIBILITY OF INDUCED EARTHQUAKE IN LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR

本文用龙羊峡水电站的水压致裂应力测量结果分析了该水库发生诱发地震的可能性。结果表明,该水库库区浅层的应力特点为:S_H>Sh>Sv,具备发生诱发地震的应力条件,但浅部和深部的应力状态可能不同。这给由浅部应力测值推测可能发生的诱发地震的震级的上限带来困难。

In this paper, according to the stress measurement data of hydraulic fracturing at Longyangxia Hydro-Electric Power Station, the possibility of induced earthquake in Longyangxia reservoir has been analyzed. The results show that the stress characteristics of the shallow layer of the reservoir can be expressed as SH>Sh>Sv, which means that there exists the stress condition of induced earthquake. It is possible that the stress state of the shallow layer differs from the that of the deep one, which makes it difficult for us to deduce the upper limit of induced earthquake's magnitude based on the stress measurement values of the shallow layer.