汞临震异常的前兆机理

PRECURSORY MECHANISM OF MERCURY ANOMALY JUST BEFORE EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE

本文从震源临震状态、传播效应、台站地球化学参数三方面的综合,导出均匀介质中震源进入粘弹体后的汞量异常与源内应力增长之间的数学关系。通过理论异常曲线和实测震例对比,证明汞量临震异常,是震源体进入粘弹状态后的震源内应力变化在测点的具体表现。文章讨论了汞量测量用以预报地震的可能性。指出震中预报在理论上相对容易;大多数情况下,发震时刻只能预估;震级将是地震预报中最难解决的问题。

Mathematical relations between Mercury anomaly and focal stress increase in homogenious medium, after the focus has become viscoelastic body, have been obtained from comprehensive study of impending state, propagational effect and geochemical parameters beneath the station. A comparison between theoretically anomalous curves and practical observation shows that Mercury impending anomaly is conctet expression of focal stress variation beneath the station after source body becomesviscoelastic. Possibility of predicting earthquake by means of Mercury observation has been discussed this papper. It is indicated that prediction for epicenter is relatively easy therotically, occurring moment of earthquake is estimative in most of cases, and magnitude is the most difficult problem in earthquake prediction.