我国公债政策的效用与未来走向

Utility of China's Bond Policy and Its Future Trend

关于公债的经济效应有两种经典的论述 ,这就是李嘉图的“等价定理”和凯恩斯的公债拉动总需求的观点。我国于 1998年开始实行的公债政策是基于当时的经济社会环境所做出的唯一的选择。政策实行五年来 ,取得了一定的成效 ,但并没完全达到预期目标。其原因在于我国的总需求不足除了经济周期性波动的原因外 。

There are two classical expositions about the economic utility of bonds: David Ricardo's 'theorem of equal value' and Keynes' view of bonds increasing general demands. China's bonds policy started from 1998 was the only choice based on economic and social environment at that time. Some achievements have been attained since the carry-out of the policy in the past five years, but the expected goals are not achieved completely. The reason is the deficiency general demands, not only because of periodic fluctuation of economy, but also owing to various kinds of restraints in the process of economic system transformation.