脆弱的国家重建——对主权移交之际美国的伊拉克政策评估

Fragile Nation-building: Assessment of U.S.-Iraq Policieson the Occasion of Sovereignty Transfer

从 2 0 0 3年 5月到 2 0 0 4年 6月 ,美国完成了伊拉克国家重建的开局工作。美国在伊拉克建立了一个新政权 ,其核心目标取得一定进展。但与此同时 ,安全、经济和民众支持度上的徘徊使伊拉克国家重建进程格外脆弱。美国在伊拉克国家重建工作呈现出 3个特点 ,即 :单边主义重建、战略决心与战术混乱之间存在落差、以黎巴嫩模式分配伊拉克权力 ,这些特点也分别给伊拉克国家重建带来困难。 2 0 0 4年 6月 30日后 ,美国将以进为退 ,逐步在伊拉克实现“可控制的退出”战略。

From May 2003 to June 2004, the United States has finished the initial tasks of nation-building in Iraq, whose central aim has made certain progress with a new regime being established in Iraq. However, security and economic issues and the hesitation of the masses make the reconstruction process particularly fragile. Three features can be discerned in America's nation building efforts in Iraq, i.e. unilateralism, disparity between strategic determination and tactics, and Lebanonization of power sharing. All these pose difficulties to the Iraq's nation-building. After June 30, 2004, the United States will make concessions in order to gain advantages and gradually achieve its strategy of “controllable withdraw'.