灰指数模型在事件发展趋势预测中的应用

The Application of Grey Model for the Prediction of Social Event

灰色系统既含有已知的信息,又含有未知的非确定性信息犤1犦,广泛存在于社会生活的各个领域。利用灰色系统理论犤1犦,预测灰色系统的演变,预测效果一般较好犤2,3犦。文章采用灰色模型GM(GreyModel)对诸如交通阻塞一类社会事件的发展进行预测,把预测结果作为中间值,再运用残差模型犤1犦加以修正,最后得到比仅限于灰指数模型更为精确的预测数据。

Grey system is a kind of theory brought forward by professor Deng Julong,which is applied in many aspects of living life and have got better effects.GM(Grey Model)is adopt in this paper for the prediction of social event .Some modification is made based on the result data for acquiring better ones.