中国中心镇镇区人口规模研究

STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE POPULATION SIZE AND SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF CHINESE CENTRAL TOWNS

通过对我国17个省的1663个中心镇的统计分析证明,中心镇镇区人口每增加一个统计级别,GDP增加1.5亿元,人口城镇化率增加5.4个百分点,财政收入增加500万元,人均收入增加400元,三产产值增加0.9亿元,人均建设用地减少10m2,贫困人口比重降低1个百分点;当中心镇人口规模超过1万人时,贫困人口比重低于全国平均水平;当中心镇人口规模大于2万人时,城镇化进入加速发展阶段,小城镇的集聚效应形成;中心镇规模越大,劳动力就业率越高,大于3万人时,外来人口比重增加极为明显;中心镇规模存在明显的地区差异,如果以东部地区为1,中部为0.8,西部仅有0.58。

An extensive survey was made in seven-teen provinces concerning the social and economicdevelopment of Chinese central towns. Statisticalanalysis reveals a close correlation between the popu-lation size and economic growth indices of the townsstudied. Detailed assessment of the statistics showsthat, except for a decrease in poverty ratio and percapita construction land, major economic and socialindices such as GDP, urbanization rate, revenue, percapita income and output of tertiary industry increasewith increasing population size of the central towns.Thus it comes to some important conclusions, ofwhich the most important are as follows: The centraltown with higher land use efficiency, better job op-portunity and lower poverty ratio always have largerpopulation size. The towns with better revenue andhigher urbanization rate usually possess more than20 thousand population. There is a distinctive re-gional disparity in population size of the towns amongeast, middle and west China. It concludes with somesuggestions concerning the development policy of thecentral towns.