中国周期性赤字和结构性赤字的估算

Estimating Cyclical and Structural Deficit in China

本文在分析比较了消除趋势法和潜在产出法的基础上,估算出我国改革开放以来的周期性赤字和结构性赤字,并依据估算结果对改革开放以来我国财政政策自动稳定功能和财政态势作简要分析。分析表明:(1)我国财政政策的自动稳定功能较弱,现实财政赤字变化主要取决于结构性赤字变化;(2)改革开放以来,我国财政态势经历了三个阶段,即1979—1981年的强紧缩阶段、1982—1997年的弱扩张阶段和1998年以来的强扩张阶段,但最近三年的积极财政政策的扩张力度已有所减弱。

This paper estimates cyclical and structural deficits after comparing the detrending method with the potential output method, and analyses the automatic stabilizer function in fiscal policies and fiscal stance since the open- ing up and reform in China. We find that (1) the automatic stabilizer function in our fiscal policies is very weak and actual fiscal deficits changes depended on structural deficits changes; (2) since the opening up and reform in China, fiscal stance has experienced three stages including strong contractionary stage during 1979 - 1981, weak expansionary stage during 1982 - 1997 and strong expansionary stage since 1998, but the expan- sionary degree of the active fiscal policy has reduced in the last three years.