全球变暖背景下东亚气候变化的最新情景预测

EAST ASIAN CLIMATE CHANGE TREND UNDER GLOBAL WARMING BACKGROUND

在最新的SRESA2和B2温室气体排放情景下 ,利用国际上 7个气候模式针对未来全球变暖的数值模拟结果 ,本文着重分析了东亚区域气候 2 1世纪的变化趋势 .研究揭示 :中国大陆年均表面气温升高过程与全球同步 ,但增幅在东北、西部和华中地区较大 ,且表现出明显的年际变化 ;全球年均表面气温增幅纬向上大体呈带状分布 ,两极地区最为明显 ,并在北极地区达到最大 ;此外 ,2 1世纪后半段北半球高纬度地区的年平均强升温幅度主要来自于冬季增温 .在 2 1世纪前 5 0年 ,温室气体含量的增加除在一定程度上会增加青藏高原大部分夏季降水量外 ,不会对中国大陆其余地区的年、季节平均降水量产生较大影响 ;

Using the numerical experiment outputs as simulated by seven climate models under SRES A2 and B2 greenhouse gas scenarios, the East Asian climate change trend in the 21st century is analyzed. It follows that surface air temperature warming in China synchronizes with the global average case generally. However,the warming amplitude in northeastern, western, and central China is stronger and exhibits larger inter-annual variation. It is shown that the warming magnitude of global annual mean surface air temperature in the 21st century distributes band shape along with latitudes and gradually enlarges toward high latitudes, with the maxima at the Arctic and Antarctic, especially for the former. In addition, the simulated strong warming at northern high latitudes in the second half of the 21st century is mainly due to winter warming. In the first half of the 21st century, the increase of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration will significantly enhance summer precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and, however, has slight influence on the other regional annual or seasonal precipitation in China. Nevertheless, both annual and seasonal precipitation will increase notablely in China in the second half of the 21st century.