资本项目开放度和实际利差分析

On the Capital Account Liberalization and Real Interest Differential

一国经济的开放程度可以从两个角度进行分析。第一个角度表现在经常项目和资本项目开放两个方面,目前各国普遍做到了经常项目的开放。本文重点分析资本项目开放问题,根据资本项目开放度指标的各种计算方法(强度法、代码法、证券与直接投资占GDP比重法),得到亚洲主要国家和地区的资本项目开放度指数。结论是,同亚洲其他地区相比,中国内地资本项目管制较为严格。 第二个角度是本国与基准国的实际利差。通过对实际利差进行分解发现,以美国为基准国,亚洲不同国家和地区同美国实际利差存在明显差异,经济开放度较低的国家(中国内地、菲律宾、印度)有着较大的均值和标准差,反之,经济开放度较高的国家和地区(香港、日本、新加坡)有较小的均值和标准差。

This paper studies several measures of capital account liberalization, including share measure, intensity measure, OECD code, Montiel - Reinhart intensity measure, stock market liberalization indicators, portfolio and direct investment assets and liabilities as a percent of GDP. We define these measures as capital account liberalization index. We score separately the intensity of capital account liberalization in Asian countries through different approach. The results indicate that the trend towards liberalization in each country is of great difference. In fact, China has lower capital account liberalization indicator compared with other Asian countries. Besides, and perhaps most importantly, real interest differentials research surveyed in this paper suggests that deviations from uncovered interest differentials and relative PPP are not the same in Asian regions. The conclusion is the real interest differentials on the effects of capital inflows is somewhat mixed. It would not be appropriate to say that raising nominal interest rate could incur capital inflows. This is an area for further work.