预期与资本市场投资分析

Expectation and Analysis of Investment in Capital Market

预期作为一种经济行为和心理现象,是人们在进行经济行为活动之前对经济变量的一种估计和主观判断。中国资本市场是一个充满预期因素作用和影响的市场。从本质上来说,投资者投资于资本市场,就是投资于这个市场的未来收益预期。预期作用于资本市场投资需求的传导机制是通过影响各经济行为主体的预期作用于投资需求的。资本市场投资供求均衡点是否稳定,取决于经济运行在受到使它离开均衡位置的冲击后将会如何变化的预期。预期的合理引导,对于投资者进行资本市场投资、防止经济的剧烈振荡,保持国民经济的长期稳定发展有着特殊的作用。在某种意义上重视投资者预期因素比重视和规划货币供应量增长的若干个百分点更为重要。

As an economic behavior or psychological phenomenon, expectation is a kind of estimation or subjective judge of economic variables before people do some economic actions. China's capital market is a market in which expectation has a full effect on. Investors go in capital market in order to carry out their future returns expectation in essence. The transmit mechanism of expectation to investment demand in capital market is by affecting every economic behavioral men's' expectation to it. Whether equilibrium of investment is stable or not depends on the expectation's change when economic movement is shocked from its equilibrium. Expectation's rational instruction has an especial significance in investors' investment in capital market, preventing economy severe vibration and keeping stable development of national economy in a long run. To some significance, paying attention to investor's expectation is more important than to the planning of money supply.