中国菲利普斯曲线的理论分析和实证研究

Theoretic Analysis and Positive Investigation on Philip's Curve in China

菲利普斯曲线是分析失业与通货膨胀变动关系的一个强有力工具 ,并可以勾勒出经济运行态势。但是 ,由于经济活动影响因素的复杂性及其组合在各国之间的差异 ,特别是我国的特殊国情及正处于经济转轨这一特殊的发展时期 ,传统的菲利普斯曲线及其理论无法直接拟合我国菲利普斯曲线的曲线模型。本文通过引入经济增长率变量 ,运用经济增长率、失业率和通货膨胀率三者相互连动的关系模型 ,结合我国经济发展的实际 ,得出了拟合程度较高的计量模型 ,并从我国的经济背景、政策含义的角度给出了理论解释 。

Philip's curve is a powerful tool to analysis the relationship between unemployment and inflation, thereby, to outline economy trend. But the conventional Philip's curve can't be taken as the same with the one in China because that the complicated factors affect economy and the factors varied between different countries, especially because of the exceptive situation of our country. Economic growth rate variable are introduced in this thesis. Through researching the model based on the interaction of economic growth rate, unemployment rate and inflation rate, this thesis educed a computation model more coincident with the actual economy in China, and from the point of view of economic situation and policy meanings to give the Philip's curve a more exact description.