摘要
本文分析了把期望价值 (EMV)作为评估并回应风险的工具的缺点。提出了一套基于股东主观效用 (效用函数 )的更恰当的方法 ,并使用这些方法去分析那些不正常的行为。这些分析包括“后悔”理论 ,并把这个概念拓展到对积极 (“满足”)成果的事后评论 ,同时也描述了“不满意”的价值。根据股东的预期有序地管理项目风险是一个挑战 。
This paper analyzes the shortcomings of applying expected monetary value(EVM) as a tool for assessing risks and response options.It presents a more relevant set of measures based on the subjective view of stakeholders(the 'utility function') and uses these to explain apparently illogical behaviors .The analysis includes the theory of 'regret' and extends this concept to include positive ('rejoice') outcomes as well as after-the-event reviews, for which a 'resentment' value is described. The challenge of managing project risk in line with stakeholder expectations requires balancing these three variables.
出处
《华东经济管理》
2004年第4期57-60,共4页
East China Economic Management
关键词
风险管理
期望价值
效用函数
risk management
expected monetary value
utility function
