中国国债发行规模的经济计量分析

Econometric Analysis of Issuing Scale of Chinese National Debt

文章对国债发行规模及相关影响变量进行Granger因果关系检验 ,确定了影响国债发行规模的主要因素 ,并应用协整理论对国债发行规模及主要影响变量进行单位根检验与协整关系检验 ,建立了长期均衡方程和短期误差修正模型 (ECM) 。

This paper tests Granger causality of issuing scale of national debt and relevant influential variables, determines the primary factors that influence issuing scales of national debt, proceeds unit root test and cointegration test of issuing scale of national debt and primary influential variables, and builds long-run equilibrium equation and short-run error correction model. With this model it can better explain the long-run equilibrium relation between Chinese national issuing scale and macro economical variables and influential factors of national debt short-run dynamic.