走出“历史不能假设”的藩篱

Moving out of the Hedge that"History Can not be Hypothesized

文章认为 ,历史发展不是脱离人的选择而自动发生的过程 ,历史发展是多种因素共同作用的结果 ,历史人物及其选择的差异、历史偶然性因素之配合不同 ,历史事件的路向就会发生变化。因此 ,在历史研究中 ,历史假设可以作为一种历史研究方法 ,通过对各种历史条件的再认识 ,弥补实证方法、抽象思维方法的不足 ,破除历史宿命论的藩篱。历史假设还可以增强历史的批判意识 。

The development of history is not a spontaneous course without human being's own choices,but a result decided by varied causes. With different people and their different decisions add with different chances,the event of history may be changed.So as a method of history studies,by review history condition,history hypothesis may be a best remedy for the defects by positivist and abstract thoughts,in order to come over the hedge of history fatalism. History hypothesis can also benefit the thoughts of historical criticism,alerting people to take lessons from history.