基于美军二战海战减员数据的校正

Adjustment based on ship casualty data during U.S. naval warfare in WW Ⅱ

目的 :通过对二战减员数据的校正 ,为下一步建立海战减员预计模型提供数据支持 .方法 :选取美军在二战太平洋海战中的减员数据作为研究的基本资料 ,通过专家咨询法 (Delphmethod)对其进行校正 ,所有结果都对其进行了t检验 .结果 :水面舰艇遭受炸弹、舰炮及航空火炮、短程导弹、鱼雷和水雷的攻击时减员将减少 ,遭受中程导弹攻击时减员将会增加 .结论

AIM: To provide data support for the model to predict ship casualty by adjusting the ship casualty data in WW Ⅱ. METHODS: The author selected the historical data from the Pacific naval war in WW Ⅱ as the studys basic data. As our surface naval vessels have the possibility of being struck by different weapons possessed by the adversary, the author adjusted the data by Delph method, and all the results underwent t test. The adjustments were made considering the changes of ship structural design and weapon equipment. RESULTS: The result indicated that the shipboard casualty would be reduced when surface naval vessels were struck by bomb, by artillery, by short range missile, by torpedoes and by mines, and the casualty will be increased when surface naval vessels were struck by intermediate range missile. CONCLUSION: The adjustment result can be used in predicting the shipboard casualty in future naval warfare.