严重飞行事故频数的灰色马尔柯夫预测

The prediction of frequency of flight mishap witty grey-markov model

根据严重飞行事故的发生频数具有趋势性和随机波动性特点,采用结合CM(1,1)模型与马尔柯夫预测技术的联合预测方法,进行严重飞行事故频数的趋势性分析和状态预测。

As frequency of flight mishap has tendency and randomizing, this paper has adopted the model GM (1,1) to forecast techniques of Markov to prejudge the trend and conditions in frequency of flight mishap and has achieved good results.