区域高火险时段现象与太阳活动异常的关系研究

THE STUDY ON RELATION BETWEEN AREA HEAVY FIRE PERIOD PHENOMENA AND SUN ABNORMAL ACTIVITY

以大兴安岭林区为例,运用异常度法及回归分析方法,研究了一定空间范围内,年际森林火灾活动中间歇起伏的高火险时段(年)现象与主要天文因素——太阳黑子活动异常的定量关系,得出了太阳黑子活动是制约区域高火险时段形成与发展的重要天文因素。太阳黑子活动极小值,当年及次年易发生高火险时段,灾情可能偏重;年过火面积与前两年9月～前一年9月太阳黑子相对数均值倒数、与前一年全年太阳黑子相对数均值倒数及前一年10月～当年3月太阳黑子相对数均值倒数成正比的结论,从定量角度揭示并建立了森林火灾灾情与太阳活动的关系,为建立森林火灾长期预测、预报理论和方法提供了新的参考依据。

Giving an example in Daxinganling forest district, we research quantitative relation between intermittent-fluctuating heavy fire period (year) phenomena in the forestry fire activities per year and main astronomical factor--sunspot abnormal activity with the methods of abnormal-extent and regression-analysis. And we draw result that sunspot abnomal activity is important astronomical factor which restricts area heavy fire period forming and developing. Heavy fire period will take place and the disaster condition is probably heavier in the present and next years of sunspot active minimum. The conclusion, that forestry fire area in the year is proportional to reciprocals of sunspot relative-number average value from Spet. two years ago to Spet. one year ago, from Jan. to Mar. present year, reveals and develops the internal relation between forestry fire disaster condition and sunspot abnormal activity. The internal relation provides new reference and basis for developing the theory and method of forestry fire forecast at long period.