对我国年度地震趋势预测效能的X^2检验

EFFICACY χ~2 CHECK OF ANNUAL EARTHQUAKE TENDENCY PREDICTION IN OUR COUNTRY

使用χ2检验和概率增益的方法分析了1990—2002年我国年度地震趋势预测的结果,在此基础上对我国年度地震趋势会商的结果作了科学评估。对于所研究的年度地震趋势预测情况能够以95%的置信水平通过χ2检验的预测约占30%,6年滑动平均的结果约占12.5%。从总体上评价,χ2检验值低于95%的置信水平,表明目前我国1年尺度地震预测实际对应率还较低。但是从概率增益均大于1这一结果来看,则又反映了目前的年度地震趋势预测无疑是有科学意义的。

Using the χ~2 check and the probability gain method, we analysed the result of annual earthquake tendency prediction in our country from 1990 to 2002. Based on it, we made some scientific assessment for the result of annual earthquake tendency consulations. For annual earthquake tendency predictions which are studied, it is 30 per cent or so passing the χ~2 check by 95 per cent of confidence level. The mean result of slip with 6 years is 12.5 per cent or so. By integral evaluation, the value of χ~2 check was less than 95 per cent of confidence level. It shows that at present the practical correspondence rate of earthquake prediction in a year scale is very low in our country. However, by the result of the probability gain more than 1, it reflects that the annual earthquake tendency prediction at present has scientific meaning no doubt.