风险的国际协议与国际协议的风险——评巴塞尔新资本协议正式出台

An International Agreement on Risk and Risks of the International Agreement——Comments on the Recently Released Basel II

本文对最近出台的巴塞尔新资本协议进行评论。首先,简要回顾了巴塞尔资本协议作为风险的国际协议从1988年至2004年的发展历程;然后,分析了新协议的基本目标、实现机制和主要特点,指出风险的国际协议得到了进一步的强化;最后,分析了新协议对我国的影响,指出在给我国带来加强金融风险管理的借鉴的同时,这部由发达国家主导制定的风险国际协议也给我国带来了新的风险和挑战,包括拒绝新协议所导致的国家声誉风险,金融服务贸易技术壁垒风险,对经济和金融运行产生不利影响的风险,以及在借鉴新协议过程中的学习风险。

This paper provides comments on the recently released Basel Ⅱ Firstly, the paper gives an overview of the evolving process from 1988 to 2004 of Basel Capital Accord which functions an international agreement on risk; then, the paper analyzes the fundamental goals, basic mechanism and major characteristics of Basel Ⅱ, and points out that the international agreement on risk has been strengthened as a result of the redesigning Ultimately, the paper focuses on the analysis of the implications of Basel Ⅱto China and points out that while providing enlightenments and knowledge of modern risk management to China, the advanced-countries-dominated Basel Ⅱalso imposes some new risks and challenges on China, which include state reputation risk resulting from rejecting Basel Ⅱ, the risk of facing technical barrier in trades in financial services, the risk of adverse impact on the whole economy and financial system, and the learning risk during the process of using Basel Ⅱfor reference