“不可能三角”不能作为中国汇率制度选择的依据

The “Impossible Trinity”Cannot Be the Theoretical Foundation for the Choice of Chinese Exchange Rate Regime

内在当前国内外有关中国汇率制度的讨论中,一些研究者依据货币政策独立性、汇率稳定和完全的资本流动不可能同时成立的“不可能三角”命题,预测中国汇率制度的未来走向。本文通过对蒙代尔-弗莱明模型和多恩布什汇率超调模型的分析,揭示一国货币金融制度选择不是面临货币政策独立性、汇率稳定与完全的资本流动的“三难选择”,而是面对只要是开放经济,就会有货币政策独立性的缺失的“开放经济两难选择”,所以货币政策独立性不能作为汇率制度选择的参照标准。作者强调实行固定汇率制度还是浮动汇率制度的选择是一种长期安排,不能依据短期的政策表现来决定取舍,而应该考虑在相当长的历史时期中,实行固定汇率制度还是浮动汇率制度更有利于经济的持续增长。

In the presently debates about china's exchange rate regime, some chinese and foreign researchers predict the future trend of china's exchange rate reform according to the “impossible trinity ”proposition which argues that a country can not simultaneously have unrestricted capital flows, a fixed exchange rate, and monetary independence This paper announce the currency system choice for a country is not faces this “trilemma”,but is face so long as is the open economy “dilemma”, supported by the Mundell -Flemming modle and Downburst's exchange rate overshooting model , therefore the monetary policy independence can not be taken as the reference standard for exchange rate system choice The author emphasized the choice between fixed rate and floating exchange rate system is one kind of long-term arrangement ,can not be based on the short-term policy decides ,but should be founded on which one is more advantageous in the economy growth lasting in long historical period dimension