我国对外贸易与经济增长之间关系的实证检验:1978—2002

The Empirical Test on the Relationship between Economic Growth and Foreign Trade in China:1978-2002

利用 1978— 2 0 0 2年的年度数据 ,采用协整分析技术、误差修正模型和多变量Granger因果关系检验方法 ,检验了我国出口、进口与经济增长之间的关系。实证分析结果表明 ,GDP、出口与进口之间存在惟一的协整关系 ,即三者之间存在长期的稳定均衡关系 ;同时存在 3个单向的Granger因果关系 :出口增长是经济增长的Granger原因、进口增长是经济增长的Granger原因、进口增长是出口增长的Granger原因 ,我国应采用出口贸易与进口贸易并重的贸易政策。

This paper analyzed the relation of import, export and economic growth with co-integration techniques and Granger-causality according to the yearly data from 1978 to 2002 in China. It is found that there exists a unique co-integration relationship among GDP, import and export, and there are three unidirectional Granger-causality relationships from export growth to economic growth, from import growth to economic growth and from import growth to export growth. The result indicates that import is as important as export.